If you're a landlord in Southwest Florida—or even just watching the real estate market closely—you've likely noticed some headlines that don’t quite match what you're seeing on the ground. Is the market slowing? Are home values really dropping in Florida? What’s happening with national sales and what does that mean for your rental property?
This post breaks it all down.
We’re combining highlights from a recent quarterly Zoom session and market analysis conducted by Red Fortress Property Management. The goal? To give landlords, investors, and local property owners a clear, data-backed look at what’s happening nationally and locally in Q3 2025—and what it all means for rentals.
1. Why Sales Data Matters (Even If You’re Only Focused on Rentals)
You might be wondering why a property management company is talking so much about home sales. After all, rentals are your focus, right?
Here’s the deal:
Sales influence renter behavior. If people can’t sell, they could rent the property.
Sales trends affect investor decisions. Do they hold, rent, or sell?
Sales volume impacts sentiment. When headlines scream “slump,” people get nervous—even if local conditions vary.
In other words, the sales market is the emotional thermometer of real estate. And in Q3 2025, that thermometer is flashing red.
2. National Home Sales Hit a 15-Year Low
Let’s start at the top. In August 2025, only 376,000 homes were sold nationwide—the lowest number since 2010.
And it’s not a fluke:
July 2025: 391,000 homes sold
June 2025: 388,000 homes sold
To find comparably low levels, you'd have to rewind to the aftermath of the Great Recession.
What’s fueling this?
High mortgage rates
Buyer hesitation
Sellers sitting on low-rate mortgages and not listing
🧠 Expert Insight:
“We’re not just seeing a blip. The past quarter reflects a real slowdown in transaction volume—something we haven’t seen in over a decade.”
— Red Fortress Zoom Session
3. Florida's Market Is Getting Hit Hard—Especially in the Southwest
Florida isn’t just participating in the slowdown—we’re leading it.
According to Q3 2025 data:
Southwest Florida (Cape Coral, North Port, Punta Gorda, Naples) showed the sharpest year-over-year price declines in the nation.
Naples: Nearly 8% decline YoY
Tampa, Miami, Sebastian: Also posting large drops
These areas dominate the “top 10” list for national real estate declines
It’s more than just seasonal variation or a dip in demand—it’s a structural shift tied to oversupply.
4. The Inventory Surge: Why It’s Dragging Down Values
One of the clearest signals of trouble? Inventory.
As of October 2025:
Florida listings are up 11% year-over-year
Texas and Arizona are even higher (23–37% inventory increase)
Compare that to the Northeast and Midwest, where inventory has shrunk
6-Year Snapshot:
Florida has 23% more homes for sale than it did in 2019
Northeast? Down in inventory
Midwest? Down or flat
So why is this happening?
Florida saw a major building boom
Migration patterns have shifted slightly post-COVID
Many owners are now unable or unwilling to sell due to the low price, leading to stale listings
5. Housing Supply is Still Elevated—But There’s a Glimmer of Good News
Looking at the 8-year trend for Florida inventory:
Inventory dropped during COVID (2020)
Since then, it’s risen significantly
In October 2025, 162,000 homes were listed, which is still high, but slightly lower than previous months
This may suggest a slight slowdown in new listings—or possibly a market finding its balance.
6. What It All Means for Southwest Florida Landlords
Now, let’s get practical.
Here’s how this data translates for you:
✅ Opportunities:
More homeowners may choose to rent instead of sell, increasing inventory for property managers
Renters who were potential buyers may stay longer in rentals due to affordability concerns
Investors may find better acquisition opportunities as prices soften
⚠️ Challenges:
Local pricing pressure could reduce your property's appraised value
Increased rental supply could intensify competition in the short term
Economic uncertainty might delay decisions by tenants and property owners alike
7. What's Coming Next (And What We'll Cover in Part 2)
This post focused on national sales data and Florida-specific trends. In the next part of our analysis, we’ll dive into:
Multifamily rental trends
Single-family rental performance
Local Southwest Florida data: Collier, Lee, and Charlotte counties
Marketing trends, application data, and actionable strategies
🧠 FAQ: U.S. Housing Market & Florida Real Estate Q3 2025
Q1: Is it a good time to buy property in Southwest Florida?
A: If you're a long-term investor, yes. Prices are lower, and rental demand remains steady. However, short-term flips carry more risk in this environment.
Q2: Why is Florida seeing a bigger price decline than other states?
A: Oversupply. Florida built aggressively over the past few years, and now that demand has cooled, listings are outpacing sales.
Q3: Will higher inventory affect rental prices?
A: Yes. More owners may list their properties as rentals, increasing competition. However, demand for rentals remains strong, especially in high-growth metros, the question is the supply.
Q4: What areas in Florida are seeing the steepest declines?
A: Cape Coral, Punta Gorda, North Port, and Naples are leading the decline with year-over-year drops of up to 12%.
Q5: Should I sell my investment property now?
A: It depends on your timeline. If you don’t need to sell urgently, holding and renting may be a smarter strategy until the market stabilizes.
